Journal Papers

• Dray, L., Kuleszo, J., Teoh, R., Stettler, M., Stewart, J. & Schäfer A., 2024. “Global air freight flow data for aviation policy modelling”, Journal of Air Transport Management, 121,102692.
• Teoh, R., Engberg, Z., Shapiro, M., Dray, L. & Stettler, M., 2024. “The high-resolution Global Aviation emissions Inventory based on ADS-B (GAIA) for 2019–2021“.  Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, 24(1), 725-744.
• Dray, L., Schäfer A., Grobler, C., Falter, C., Allroggen, F., Stettler, M. and Barrett, S., 2022. “Cost and emissions pathways towards net-zero climate impacts in aviation”. Nature Climate Change, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-022-01485-4.
• Dray, L and Schäfer A., 2021. “Initial Long-Term Scenarios for COVID-19’s Impact on Aviation and Implications for Climate Policy”. Transportation Research Record, in press.
• Dray, L., Doyme, K. and Schäfer A.W., 2020. “Airline Profit Maximisation, Cost Pass-through, and Scarcity Rents in Capacity-constrained Aviation Systems”, Journal of Transport Economics and Policy, 54(4), 244-266.
• Dray, L., 2020. “An Empirical Analysis of Airport Capacity Expansion”, Journal of Air Transport Management, 87, 101850.
• Dray, L. and Doyme, K., 2019. “Carbon Leakage in Aviation Policy”, Climate Policy, 19:10, 1284-1296.
• Dray L., Krammer P., Doyme K., Wang B., Al Zayat K, O’Sullivan A., Schäfer A., 2019. “AIM2015: Validation and initial results from an open-source aviation systems model”, Transport Policy, 79, 93-102.
• Doyme K., Dray L., O’Sullivan A., and Schäfer A.W., 2019. “Simulating Airline Behavior: Application for the Australian Domestic Market“, Transportation Research Record, 2673(2), 104-112.
• Wang B., O’Sullivan A., and Schäfer A.W., 2019. “Assessing the Impact of High-Speed Rail on Domestic Aviation CO2 Emissions in China“, Transportation Research Record, 2673(3), 176-188.
• Schäfer A.W., Barrett S.R.H., Doyme K., Dray L.M.D., Gnadt A.R., Self R., O’Sullivan A., Synodinos A.P., and Torija A.J., 2018. “Technological, Economic and Environmental Prospects of All-Electric Aircraft”, Nature Energy, 4, 160-166.
• Dray L., Schäfer A.W., and Al Zayat K., 2018. “The Global Potential for CO2 Emissions Reduction from Jet Engine Passenger Aircraft”, Transportation Research Record, 2672(23), 40-51.
• Wang B., O’Sullivan A., Dray L., and Schäfer A.W., 2018. “Modeling Airline Cost Pass-Through within Regional Aviation Markets”, Transportation Research Record, 2672(23), 146-157.
• Dray L., Laplace I., Marzuoli A., Feron E., and Evans A., 2017. “Using Ground Transportation for Aviation System Disruption Alleviation”, Journal of Air Transportation, 25, 95-107.
• Schäfer A., Evans, A., Reynolds T., Dray L., 2016. “Costs of mitigating CO₂ emissions from passenger aircraft”, Nature Climate Change 6, 412–417.
• Timmis A., Hodzic A., Koh L. Bonner M., Schäfer A., Dray L., 2015. “Environmental Impact assessment of aviation emissions reduction through implementation of composite materials”, International Journal of Life Cycle Assessment, 20(2), 233-243.
• Evans A., 2014. “Comparing the impact of future airline network change on emissions in India and the United States”, Transportation Research Part D, 32, 373-386.
• Schäfer A., Waitz I.A., 2014. “Air Transportation and the Environment”, Transport Policy, 34, 1-4.
• Evans A., Schäfer A., 2014. “Simulating Airline Operational Responses to Airport Capacity Constraints”, Transport Policy, 34, 5-13.
• Dessens O., Köhler M.O., Rogers H.L., Jones R.L., Pyle J.A., 2014. “Aviation and Climate Change”, Transport Policy, 34, 14-20.
• Dray L., 2014. “Time Constants in Aviation Infrastructure”, Transport Policy, 34, 29-35.
• Graham W.R., Hall C., Vera Morales M., 2014. “The potential of future aircraft technology for noise and pollutant emissions reduction”, Transport Policy, 34, 36-51.
• Reynolds T.G., 2014. “Air Traffic Management Performance Assessment Using Flight Inefficiency Metrics”, Transport Policy, 34, 63-74.
• Dray L., Evans A., Reynolds T.G., Schäfer A., Vera-Morales M., Bosbach W., 2014. “Airline fleet replacement funded by a carbon tax: an integrated assessment”, Transport Policy, 34, 75-84.
• Gucwa M., Schäfer A., 2013. “The Impact of Scale on Energy Intensity in Freight Transportation”, Transportation Research Part D: Transport and Environment, 23, 41-49.
• Krammer P., Dray L., Köhler M., 2013. “Climate-neutrality versus carbon-neutrality for aviation biofuel policy”, Transportation Research Part D, 23, 64-72.
• Evans A., Schäfer A., 2013. “The Rebound Effect in the Aviation Sector”, Energy Economics, 6, 158–165.
• Dray L., 2013. “An analysis of the impact of aircraft lifecycles on aviation emissions mitigation policies”, Journal of Air Transport Management, 28, 62-69.
• Dray L., Schäfer A., Ben-Akiva M., 2012. “Technology Limits to Reducing Transport Sector Greenhouse Gas Emissions”, Environmental Science and Technology, 46(9), 4734-4741.
• Evans A., Schäfer A., 2011. “The Impact of Airport Capacity Constraints on Future Growth in the US Air Transportation System”, Journal of Air Transport Management, 17, 288-295.
• Barrett S.R.H., Britter R.E., Waitz I.A., 2010. “Global mortality attributable to aircraft cruise emissions”, Environmental Science & Technology, 44(19), 7736-7742.
• Vera-Morales M., Hall C., 2010. “Modelling Performance and Emissions from Aircraft for the Aviation Integrated Modelling Project”, Journal of Aircraft, 47(3), 812-819.
• Dray L., Evans A., Reynolds T., Schäfer A., 2010. “Mitigating Aviation Carbon Dioxide Emissions: An Analysis for Europe”, Transportation Research Record, 2177, 17-26.
• Barrett S.R.H., Britter R.E., 2009. “Algorithms and analytical solutions for rapidly approximating long-term dispersion from line and area sources”, Atmospheric Environment 43, 3249-3258.
• Barrett S.R.H., Britter R.E., 2008. “Development of Algorithms and Approximations for Rapid Operational Air Quality Modelling”, Atmospheric Environment 42, 8105-8111.

Conference Papers

• Yang, B., Doyme, K., Dray, L. & Schäfer A., 2024. “Modelling airport competition: examples of UK airports”. 12th European Aviation Conference, Antwerp, 27-29 November 2024. [Poster]
• Doyme, K., Dray, L., Gök, Y. S. & Schäfer A., 2024. “Modelling the value of an airport slot”. 103rd TRB annual meeting, Washington DC, January 7-11. [Presentation]
• Gök, Y. S., Doyme, K., Dray, L. & Schäfer A., 2024. “The Influence of Airline Business Models on Hydrogen Aircraft Uptake in Europe”. 103rd TRB annual meeting, Washington DC, January 7-11. [Poster]
• Dray, L., Kuleszo, J., Teoh, R, Stettler, M., Stewart, J. & Schäfer A., 2023. “Global air freight flow data for aviation policy modelling”. 26th ATRS World Conference, Kobe, July 3. [Presentation]
• Dray, L., Doyme, K., Kuleszo, J. & Schäfer A., 2022. “Modelling the impact of small hydrogen aircraft characteristics on potential UK domestic uptake”. 25th ATRS World Conference, Antwerp, August 24-27. [Presentation]
• Dray L., 2019. “An Empirical Analysis of Airport Capacity Expansion”, 23rd ATRS World Conference, July 2-5. [Presentation]
• Dray L., Al Zayat K, Schäfer A., 2018. “The Global Potential for CO2 Emissions Reduction from Jet Engine Passenger Aircraft”, 97th TRB Annual Meeting, Washington DC, January 7-11. [Presentation]
• Wang B., O’Sullivan A., Dray L., Schäfer A., 2018. “Modelling Airline Cost Pass-Through Within Regional Aviation Markets”, 97th TRB Annual Meeting, Washington DC, January 7-11. [Presentation]
• Dray L., Krammer P., Doyme K., Wang B., Al Zayat K, O’Sullivan A., Schäfer A., 2017. “AIM2015: Validation and Initial Results from an Open-Source Aviation Systems Model”, 21st ATRS World Conference, July 5-8. [Presentation]
  
• Wang B., O’Sullivan A., Dray L., Al Zayat K, Schäfer A., 2017. “Modelling the Pass-Through of Airline Operating Costs on Average Fares in the Global Aviation Market”, 21st ATRS World Conference, July 5-8. [Presentation]
• Al Zayat K., Dray L., Schäfer A., 2017. “A First-Order Analysis of Direct Operating Costs of Battery Electric Aircraft”, 21st ATRS World Conference, July 5-8. [Presentation]
• Dray L., Evans A., Schäfer A., 2010. “The Impact of Economic Emissions Mitigation Measures on Global Aircraft Emissions”, 10th Aviation Technology, Integration and Operations (ATIO) Conference, Fort Worth, September 13-15. [Presentation]
• Dray L., 2010. “An Analysis of the Impact of Aircraft Lifecycles on Aviation Emissions Mitigation Policies”, 14th ATRS World Conference, Porto, Portugal, 6-9 July 2010. [Presentation]
• Dray L., Evans A., Reynolds T.G., Schäfer A., 2010. “Mitigating Aviation Carbon Dioxide Emissions: An Analysis for Europe”, 89th Transportation Research Board Conference, Washington DC, January 10-14. [Presentation]
• Dray L., Evans A., Reynolds T.G., Schäfer A., 2009. “A Comparison of Aviation Greenhouse Gas Emission Policies for Europe”, 9th AIAA Aviation technology, Integrations and Operations Conference, Hilton Head, South Carolina, September 21-23. [Presentation]
• Evans A., Schäfer A., 2009. “Simulating Flight Routing Network Responses to Airport Capacity Constraints in the US”, 9th AIAA Aviation technology, Integrations and Operations Conference, Hilton Head, South Carolina, September 21-23 [Presentation]
• Reynolds T.G., 2009. “Development of Flight Inefficiency Metrics for Environmental Performance Assessment of ATM”, 8th USA.Europe Air Traffic Management Research and Development Seminar, Napa, CA, June 29 – July 2. Winner of the Best Environment Paper award. [Presentation]
• Dray L., Evans A., Reynolds T.G., Rogers H., Schäfer A., Vera-Morales M., 2009. “Air Transport Within An Emissions Trading Regime: A Network-based Analysis of the United States and India”, 88th Transportation Research Board Annual Meeting, Washington, DC, January 11-15.
• Vera-Morales M., Hall C.A., 2009. “Modelling Performance and Emissions from Aircraft for the Aviation Integrated Modelling Project”, 47th AIAA Aerospace Sciences Meeting and Exhibit, Orlando, Florida, January 5-8. [Presentation]
• Evans A. 2009. “Comparison of Optimal Airline Network Routing to Operations in the United States”, 41st Annual Universities’ Transport Study Group (UTSG) Conference, London, January 5-7.
• Dray L., Evans A., Vera-Morales M., Reynolds T.G., Schäfer A, 2008. “Network and Environmental Impacts of Passenger and Airline Response to Cost and Delay”, 8th AIAA Aviation Technology, Integration and Operations Conference, Anchorage, Alaska, September 14-19. [Presentation]
• Evans A., Schäfer A., Dray L., 2008. “Modelling Airline Network Routing and Scheduling under Airport Capacity Constraints”, 8th AIAA Aviation Technology, Integration and Operations Conference, Anchorage, Alaska, September 14-19. [Presentation]
• Reynolds T.G., 2008. “Analysis of Lateral Flight Inefficiency in Global Air Traffic Management”, 8th AIAA Aviation Technology, Integration and Operations Conference, Anchorage, Alaska, September 14-19. [Presentation]
• Evans A., 2008. “Rapid Modelling of Airport Delay”, 12th Air Transport Research Society (ATRS) World Conference, Athens, Greece, July 6-10.
• Bolgeri P. (Politecnico di Milano), Dray L., Evans A., Schäfer A., 2008. “The Emergence of Multi-Airport Systems”, 12th Air Transport Research Society (ATRS) World Conference, Athens, Greece, July 6-10.
• Reynolds T.G., Barrett S.R.H., Dray L., Evans A., Köhler M., Vera-Morales M., Schäfer A., Wadud Z., Britter R.E., Hallam H., Hunsley R., 2007. “Modelling Environmental & Economic Impacts of Aviation: Introducing the Aviation Integrated Modelling Project”, 7th AIAA Aviation Technology, Integration and Operations Conference, Belfast, UK, September 18-20. [Presentation]
• Barrett S.R.H., Britter R.E., 2007. “A Simple Approach for Rapid Operational Air Quality Modelling at Airports”, 11th International Conference on Harmonisation within Atmospheric Dispersion Modelling for Regulatory Purposes, Cambridge, UK, July 2-5.

Presentations

• Li, P., 2024. “Airline and passenger responses to novel aircraft technologies in China”. 27th ATRS World Conference, Lisbon, July 3rd. [Presentation]
• Dray, L., 2024. “The role of sustainable aviation fuels and liquid hydrogen in the path towards climate neutrality”. Bauhaus Luftfahrt symposium on climate-neutral aviation, Berlin, March 13. [Presentation]
• Li, P., 2023. “Modeling Consumer Preferences for Low-CO2 Emissions Aircraft in China”. 26th ATRS World Conference, Kobe (online pre-conference), July 1. [Presentation]
• Dray, L., 2023. “Cost and Emissions Pathways towards net zero climate impacts in aviation”. FAA New and Emerging Technologies Series seminar, online, June 27. [Presentation]
• Schäfer A., 2020. “Technological, Economic and Market Prospects of All-Electric Aircraft”. ITF/OECD Expert Workshop on Decarbonising Air Transport, Paris, February 24. [Presentation]
• Dray, L., 2020. “Integrated assessment modelling for aviation”. National Air Traffic Services (NATS) seminar, Whitely. [Presentation]
• Dray L. 2018. “Integrated assessment modelling for aviation“, International Transport Analysis Conference 2018, Department for Transport, London, February 16. [Presentation]
• Schäfer A., 2016. “First Order Economic Impacts of ICAO’s Global Market Based Measure Scheme”, Delivering Sustainable Growth in Aviation, Royal Aeronautical Society, London, October 17-18. [Presentation]
• O’Sullivan A., 2016. “AIM-OS: Aviation Integrated Modelling Open Source”, 5th UTIAS International Workshop on Aviation and Climate Change, University of Toronto Institute for Sustainable Aviation, May 18-20 [Presentation]
• Evans A., 2013. “Fleet-Level Assessments and System-Wide Environmental Impacts”, University of Toronto Institute for Sustainable Aviation Lecture, Toronto, March 7. [Presentation]
• Dray L., 2012. “Understanding Aviation Emissions on the Global Level”, IMechE Sustainability Seminar, Rotherham, April 24. [Presentation]
• Dray L., 2010. “Modelling Sustainable Aviation with AIM”, KAIST EEWS International Workshop, Daejeon, October 7. [Presentation]
• Evans A., 2010. “How are Airlines Likely to Respond to Congestion?”, MIT-Portugal AirNets Workshop, Lisbon, April 27. [Presentation]
• Dray L., 2010. “Opportunities for Reducing Aviation-Related GHG Emissions: A Systems Analysis for Europe”, Eco-Aerovision Symposium, San Diego, CA, March 3. [Presentation]
• Dray L., 2009. “EU Emissions Trading – Adding Aviation”, TAROM Emissions Trading Workshop, Bucharest, Romania, July 28. [Presentation]
• Dray L., 2009. “Future Scenarios for Aviation: Modelling the Effect of Emissions Trading”, TAROM Emissions Trading Workshop, Bucharest, Romania, July 29. [Presentation]
• Evans A., Dray L., 2009. “Aviation Integrated Modelling Project”, ANCAT/MITG12 Meeting, The Hague, Netherlands, May 19. [Presentation]
• Schäfer A., 2009. Aerospace 2009: Environmental Outlook: Facing up to the Future. Royal Aeronautical Society, London, UK, 21-23 April. [Presentation]
• Reynolds T.G., 2009. “Using the Aviation Integrated Model for Policy Assessment”, UC Davis Revolution in Aviation Symposium, Palm Springs, CA, USA, March 2. [Presentation]
• Schäfer A., 2009. “Alternative Fuels for Aviation: Drivers, Opportunities, and Constraints”, International Conference on Alternative Aviation Fuels, Royal Aeronautical Society, London, November 24-26.
• Reynolds T.G., 2008. “Aviation and Its Environmental Effects”, Aviation, the Environment and Emissions Trading Conference, Brussels, Belgium, November 19-20. [Presentation]
• Evans A., 2008. “Modelling the Future Environmental Impact of Aviation”, INFORMS Annual Meeting, Washington DC, USA, October 12-15. [Presentation]
• Wadud Z., 2008. “Environmental Costs of Aviation: Review of Literature”, Omega Environmental Costs of Air Transport Workshop, Cambridge, UK, October 10. [Presentation]
• Reynolds T.G., 2008. “ATM’s Role in Improving Environmental Performance”, Omega Aviation Sustainability Short Course: Unlocking Greener Aviation, Cranfield University, UK, June 17-19. [Presentation]
• Reynolds T.G., 2008. “Environmental Challenges for Aviation: An Overview”, Low Cost Air Transport Summit, London, UK, June 11-12. [Presentation]
• Vera Morales M., 2008. “Incorporating New Technologies into the Aviation Integrated Modeling Project”, UTIAS-MITACS International Workshop on Aviation and Climate Change, Toronto, Canada, May 29-30. [Presentation]
• Reynolds T.G., 2008. “Overview of the Institute for Aviation and the Environment & Aviation Integrated Modelling Project”, PARTNER Advisory Board Meeting, Transport Canada, Ottawa, Canada, March 25-26. [Presentation]
• Dray L., Evans A., 2007. “Modelling Environmental and Economic Impacts of Aviation: Introducing the Aviation Integrated Modelling Project”, Indian Institute of Technology Bombay Department of Aerospace Engineering Seminar, Mumbai, India, October 26. [Presentation]